War in Sri Lanka comes to an end: LTTE gets the final kick in the face

LTTE can be defeated. Yes.

In a civil war lasting more than 25 years, the LTTE gained a reputation of being nearly invincible. Time is changed now. Sri Lankan Government forces at last made their way through and showed LTTE the exit path.

How was it done?ell, a string of miscalculations and grave strategic mistakes led to the downfall of the LTTE and its leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.

In 1991, an LTTE female suicide bomber killed former Indian president and National Congress Party leader Rajiv Gandhi, who had sent peacekeeping troops to Sri Lanka in 1987 that become involved in fighting with the rebels. The Congress Party, led by Gandhi’s widow Sonia, heads the government in New Delhi again today, probably one reason why big brother India failed to heed the protests of its own Tamil minority as Rajapakse pressed ahead with his campaign to annihilate the LTTE.

Then, in 2005, it was Prabhakaran of all people who brought about the victory of the hardliner Rajapaksa in the country’s presidential elections. Shortly before the polls, the LTTE ordered an election boycott. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who advocated a political solution to the conflict, narrowly lost the elections without the Tamil vote.

According to analyst Jehan Perera, Prabhakaran might have been gambling that the international community would withdrawing its support from Rajapaksa’s government over his hardline policy. However, the gamble backfired as more and more countries blacklisted the LTTE over the group’s ongoing suicide and other attacks, leading to the Tigers’ increasing international isolation.

With the self-confidence of its military advances against the LTTE, Rajapaksa’s government tried to sell the Tamil Tigers’ defeat as evidence that terrorism could only be quashed by military means while, at the same time, many Western states, chastened by their experience in Afghanistan, have drawn a very different conclusion. Seemingly drunk with imminent victory, Rajapaksa aide Lucien Rajakarunanayake recently wrote that Sri Lankan troops could soon be ‘the most sought-after force in the fight against terrorism.’ He said the world increasingly saw Sri Lanka as ‘an example how terrorism can be fought and defeated.’

Although a majority in the international community is horrified over the bloodbath among the civilian population caused by the fighting, his thesis finds its supporters in the West.

Back in January, the conservative US Wall Street Journal wrote: ‘For all those who argue that there’s no military solution for terrorism, we have two words: Sri Lanka.’ And, directed at the new US president, the paper added, ‘Colombo’s military strategy against Tamil terrorists has worked. Negotiations haven’t. That’s an important reminder as Israel faces its own terrorism problem and as the US works to foster stability and political progress in Iraq. Take note, Barack Obama.’ While the LTTE is unlikely to recover its former strength, it was expected to continue to operate in the underground and continue to carry out attacks.

Mumbai attack: How it happened

Only 10 terrorists entered the city just an hour before and did the massacre. Nine terrorists were killed in encounters with the security forces, while a 21-year-old was captured alive.

The terrorists came in a ship and used a boat to come to the shore. Four Indians were already on the boat and the terrorists killed three of them while they used one, Amar Narayan, to handle the boat. When the boat was just three nautical miles away from shore, they slit Narayan’s throat and dumped his body in the trawler. They then used their own skill to come to shore.

After landing at Fish Market at Cuffe Parade near Colaba, they formed four groups and hired taxis to reach to their destinations. A group of two young terrorists entered Hotel Oberoi, four into Taj Mahal Hotel, two stormed into Nariman House while the rest entered the CST railway station from its mail trains’ gate. Their plan was to cause maximum damage and return with hostages protecting themselves.

As the attacks began, two terrorist started random firing at CST railway station while three other teams had began firing at Oberoi, Taj and Nariman House. One terrorist who sustained a bullet injury in his hand during an encounter with the police was captured. And all the rest were killed during the 3-day gun fight.

The arrested one will die during interrogations on next Wednesday unless he agrees to say, what interrogators wants him to say. Indian media, backed by intelligence forces will (successfully) put the blame on Pakistan’s shoulder. However, they will involve some more countries including Malaysia and Sri Lanka. Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba will be blamed heavily by the western media. Pakistan government will be screwed one more time as this group was formed by the Pakistani intelligence force to pinch Indian forces at Kashmir.

Ultimately, Muslims (Indian, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Afghans) will have to suffer the side-effect of this incident. By Muslim, I mean, liberal Muslims, not the fanatics.

Indian Navy is dumb, intelligence force dumber, Army dumbest

Situation is, 50+ hours have gone and counting. Indian Army / security forces still could not flash out terrorists from one of the hotels in Mumbai. Probably they should ask Sharukh Khan or Ajay Devghan to do something about it now. Both these actors have experience in handling such situations, unlike them (Indian Army).

How inefficient a trained security forces can be? After 50 hours of operation, all they could find is, dead bodies inside the hotels, hello, the whole world already knows it. The Army commander claimed, the soldiers had to retaliate as terrorists started throwing grenades; what were they expecting, flowers? Indian Army said, the terrorists had map and layout of the hotel, which they did not. Sir, search google, you will find it.

Indian commando units stormed into a Jewish center, known as Chabad House. Result………..five bodies of Israeli citizens. The terrorists had executed the hostages during the commando raid, the Indian military said. No sign of terrorists there? Did not you actually go in there for the terrorists? If the hostages are killed, why the hell did you go there? Just to practice rope jumping from helicopters? Same situation in Oberoi hotel – Army raids and recovery of 24 dead bodies of only the hostages.

So, how many lives were saved by the Indian Army? None. On a contrary, over 50 people died after the Army started their operations. The people who came out, they were stuck on other part of the hotels, where terrorists had no control.

The intelligence sources had no idea about the whole thing; still no confirmation of how many terrorists was there, their nationality or name of their organizations. What do these intelligence officers do actually? Watch Bollywood movies in office time and cricket at evening? Perhaps.

Last week, Indian Navy claimed that they destroyed a pirate ship at the Gulf of Aden. Later they found out, it was a Thai fishing vessel. 13 innocent crew died on that incident. It seems, Indian security forces have lost it all. Its Navy is dumb, intelligence force dumber, Army dumbest.

The Crisis in Caucasus – will the French-served peace last?

It was a time when the whole world was waiting for the spectacular unveiling of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. The U.S. President George Bush and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin were just inches away fro each other, watching the greatest show on earth. However, this physical nearness was overwhelmed by the political distance in the Caucasus region where Russia launched a military operation in response to a rather ‘silly’ adventure of Mikheil Saakashvili, the president of Georgia. In a week long exchange or military wrath, Georgia is found to have paid a heavy price. Although there was a declaration of cessation of military operations, hostilities in the region are far from a complete end.

But why waging this unnecessary war? Both sides of Georgia and Russia have their own logics about the legitimacy of the conflict. Many critics would argue that it was due to a test-drive of the U.S. administration to assess the military capabilities, determination and power of Russia; Georgia by far has a reputation of being American ally in the region. But the conflict in the Caucasus seemed much overdue since the birth of the breakaway semiautonomous provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. A brief look back would help understand the backdrop of the events that made quite a movement in the recent international politics -

Twilight of Soviet Union saw a number of separatist movements – Georgia being the principal. With a rising pulse of separation in 1989 in Tbilisi, South Ossetia too, made its intention clear of being separate from Georgia. This resulted in violent clashes between Georgians and South Ossetians in Tskhinvali (capital of South Ossetia).

In 1990, South Ossetia with its 70,000 strong population (majority being Russians) declared its intention to secede from Tbilisi government which again escalated the conflict. Soviet forces were stationed in the region to keep a peace that ultimately seemed futile.

With the demise of Soviet Union and Georgia becoming independent in 1991, nothing happened in South Ossetia in Georgia’s favor. The intent of breaking away from Tbilisi did not die down in South Ossetia. A year long sporadic violence continued in the region till an agreement was reached for a deployment of Russian-Ossetian-Georgian peacekeeping force. A political impasse continued over the issue of South Ossetia’s independence during Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze’s period till his ousting by ‘Rose Revolution’ in 2003. With a landslide victory in the election that followed in 2004, Mikheil Saakashvili, the new president of Georgia held the reins with a commitment to heel the breakaway regions namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Nevertheless, Mikheil Saakashvili’s proposal of dialogue and conditional autonomy was vehemently opposed by the separatist especially those of South Ossetia.

An unrecognized referendum in 2006 portrayed the rejuvenated demand of independence by South Ossetians which was offset by a similar referendum by Georgian minority in South Ossetia who preferred to stay with Tbilisi administration. Since then sporadic clashes continued. Russia’s supportive posture to Tskhinvali along with the facts like most South Ossetians carrying Russian passports and using Rouble for trade caused an increasing anger in Tbilisi. It is no wonder that Georgia always wanted to release her dogs of war at some point of time.

In early August, this year, clashes mounted between South Ossetian separatist forces and Georgian troops and climaxed with Georgia launching aerial bombardment and land offensive against the breakaway region on 7 August. By 8 August, Georgian troops were in control of the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali that ultimately lasted for hours only. Inaccessible terrain and approach conditions from the north to South Ossetia left Georgians happy and oblivious of fast moving Russian military forces. Soldiers, tanks and vehicles poured in at the same time when Georgian military control was established over Tskhinvali. The control soon became fragile and ultimately broke down completely when Russian air and ground attacks continued not only on Georgian forces in South Ossetia but other important parts of Georgia. At the end of what lasted for a week, Georgians paid higher price in terms of human and infrastructural casualties. Little sense of relief started to prevail in South Ossetia after Georgian troops pulled out of Tskhinvali.

Blame-game continued from the beginning of the hostilities between Georgian and Russian forces. Military and government version of logics behind Georgian offensive against Tskhinvali was for ‘restoring constitutional order’ by ‘neutralizing separatist fighters attacking civilians’. Russian authorities see their counter-offensive as a measure to protect their people in the region who are allegedly targeted by Georgian military. Russia even linked this hostile act of Georgia as a disqualification for NATO membership – a matter to Russia’s discomfort being long discussed amongst existing NATO members. As a presidential decree to declare ‘state of war’ got approved in the Georgian parliament on 9 August, Russian president expressed his commitment in forcing Georgians to peace duly supported by his prime minister Vladimir Putin’s claim of Georgia’s act of genocide.

Caught in the middle of the conflict, hundreds of civilian lives were lost, while thousands fled the ruined South Ossetia and Georgian town of Gori. Material losses were high on the side of the Georgians with certain areas of Tbilisi, Gori, and Port of Poti being damaged by Russian air bombardment.

Although Georgia started to pull out of South Ossetia as early as 10 August, Russian forces continued to advance beyond South Ossetia into her main land. Russian advances and operations inside Georgia provoked the U.S. only to make cautionary statements against Russia – an act that utterly disappointed a pro-U.S. Georgia in view of her anticipation of U.S. active involvement. Meanwhile diplomacy by EU intensified and a French-brokered peace plan was served to both the countries in dispute. The six point peace plan outlined:

-    Complete end of use of force
-    Granting free access to humanitarian aid
-    Return of Georgian forces to places of permanent deployment
-    Return of Russian forces to pre-conflict positions
-    Complete cessation of military actions.
-    Resumption of international talks on the future status of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Following the U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s four hour long meeting, President Saakashvili signed the agreement on 15 August. Initially it was rejected by Russia probably because it still wanted to consolidate her gains in posing a substantial threat to Georgia being inside her territory for days already. However, finally on 16 August, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed the agreement. This agreement includes a provision that allows Russia to make additional security arrangements till the arrival of international observers to monitor the ceasefire.

Current situation in the Caucasus portrays a scene that is far from a lasting peace. It is a fact that with both sides signing the French-served peace plan, tensions have dropped substantially in the region. But with Russia’s intention of staying back till ‘additional security measures’ are in place and Mr. George Bush’s August 16 statement of ‘no room for debate’ on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, two very fundamental points out of those six served, seem to be in distress. Without a complete withdrawal of Russians from South Ossetia and Georgian main land, Georgia remains under a threat. With an opposing U.S. attitude to the promised international talks on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, separatist movements in these two breakaway regions may get reenergized throwing the entire Caucasus region in a volatile situation in future.

The international community will nervously watch the events that follow in next few days and weeks.

Contributor: Mohammad Yousuf

Philippine’s peace pact in limbo

More than a decade after signing the peace agreement with the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), the Philippines government said, it will take more time to implement the pact. The government panel actually brought out some of its proposals during previous meetings with the MNLF and the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) but didn’t come out with specific details.

The Philippine government, the MNLF and the Organization have been working on a possible amendment on the 1996 peace accord after the former complained that the truce was not fully implemented. Jess Dureza, presidential adviser on the peace process said – “It will take time, but we are hopeful,”. “There is a scheduled tripartite meeting this May, and we believe several other constructive proposals will come out.” – he added.

The former rebel group, whose leaders are from Sulu, also said the autonomous region was not given enough power despite the existence of the peace agreement. The Organization of Islamic Conference recently said, the government and the former Muslim separatists are making progress toward implementing a peace accord granting autonomy to Filipino Muslims in the south.

The influential Muslim organization said it is now counting on the government and the MNLF to come up with proposals on amending the 1996 peace agreement, which ended decades of fighting and led to the creation of an autonomous region for Muslims.

The Organization, MNLF, and the Philippine government representatives are expected to submit a report to the Organization of Islamic Conference next month on possible amendments for the autonomy to be fully realized. Government and MNLF negotiators said they are just finalizing the documents and will come up with a combined report after the tripartite meeting. The tripartite meeting is aimed at discussing issues concerning the implementation of the Conference-mediated 1996 peace agreement.

Parties working on the agreement were supposed to meet on January 14 2008, but the Organization of Islamic Conference failed to send its representative for unknown reasons. The meeting was tentatively rescheduled on May 12, 2008 in Manila. Both the Philippine government and the MNLF agreed to create a joint working group, a body composed of government and MNLF representatives to look into the complaints of the former rebels.

Will Jemaah Islamiyah bounce back?

Indonesian police arrested the country’s most wanted terrorist Zarkasi from Yogyakarta city on 15 June, 2007. Zarkasi, the Indonesian born terrorist was leading the Southeast Asian terrorist organization Jemaah Islamiyah since 2004. Just two days earlier to this, police exposed that they had captured Jemaah Islamiyah’s military chief Abu Dujana, during a raid in the island of Java. These two arrests will disrupt Jemaah Islamiyah’s network for sure, but whether it will stop the group’s destructive activities remains a question.

Jemaah Islamiyah is responsible for a string of violence in the Asia Pacific region, including the 2002 bombings on the island of Bali, which left 202 people including 80 foreigners dead. Jemaah Islamiyah meaning ‘Islamic Group’ is dedicated to the establishment of an Islamic State in Southeast Asia incorporating Indonesia, southern Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei. Over 900 active members are incorporated in the group while thousands other remain as supporters. Leaders of the group are mostly Indonesian nationals who fought or trained in Afghanistan in the 1980s and 1990s. Several researches indicate that, in addition to raising its own funds, JI receives money and logistic assistance from Middle Eastern and South Asian contacts, Islamic minded nongovernmental organizations and other terrorist groups including the al-Qaida.

The recent arrests of Jemaah Islamiyah’s leader and military boss surely gave its network a major blow but it still possesses the ability to bounce back as it did after the arrest of Hambali in 2003. Keeping JI’s past record in mind, it is predictable that the group will try to regroup very quickly and will mark its presence in the region with a bang. In the process, existing leadership will definitely try to find new techniques of operation so that their network will not be easily detected by the security forces in future.

The capture of Riduan bin Isomoddin Hambali, Jemaah Islamiyah leader and al-Qaida’s Southeast Asia operations chief in August 2003, damaged the group’s strengths but could not reduce its ability to carry out bomb attacks. On September 2004, JI activists activated a car bomb near the Australian Embassy in Jakarta and left 11 people dead.

Intelligent reports suggest that some JI leaders currently are recruiting activists and holding military training in the southern Philippines. One of the main players – Abu Bakar Bashir, considered as the religious leader of the group faced couple of years behind the bars till 2006 and now living in Java. Additionally, Indonesian police are still looking for Malaysian born Noordin M Top, now heads a breakaway faction of Jemaah Islamiyah. As long as these two persons roam free and preaches new recruits, danger of destructive attacks remains wide open.

Foreign governments, specially Australia, human rights groups and corporate houses operating in Indonesia criticised the government for failing to control Jemaah Islamiyah’s violent activities. The government admitted that detecting JI militants in the world’s most populous Muslim nation, where administration is open to mass corruption, is very hard. The recent arrests will bring a fair share of relief to the government but it must not lie back for a single moment as the ideology of JI is still intact and it remains a legal organisation in Indonesia.

Capturing the most wanted criminals will not do much if the judicial system does not provide support to it. Indonesian government therefore needs to continue its search to arrest other militants and has to improve both legislative and judicial systems of the country to root out Jemaah Islamiyah for ever.

India – 77% people lives below the poverty line

A recent government report said “seventy-seven percent of Indians, about 836 million people, live on less than half a dollar a day. India is considered as one of the hottest economies of the world but now it seems, it needs to do something about the enormous inequalities.

The report entitled “Conditions of Work and Promotion of Livelihoods in the Unorganized Sector” by the state-run National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganized Sector (NCEUS) said, most of those living on below 50 US cents per day were from the informal labor sector with no job or social security, living in abject poverty. For most of them, conditions of work are utterly deplorable and livelihood options extremely few.

According to the report, based on data from 2004-2005, 92 percent of India’s total workforce of 457 million were employed as agricultural laborers and farmers, or in jobs such as working in quarries, brick kilns or as street vendors. The report said, “such a sordid picture co-exists uneasily with a shining India that has successfully confronted the challenge of globalization powered by economic competition both within the country and across the world.”

Around 26 percent of India’s population lives below the poverty line. Economic liberalization since the early 1990s has created a 300 million-strong middle class and led to an average annual economic growth of 8.6 percent over the last four years, but millions of the country’s poor remain untouched by the boom. The report said the majority of those working and living under “miserable conditions” were lower castes, tribal people and Muslims and the most disadvantaged of these were women, migrant workers and children.

Malaysian police are tracking down a human trafficking syndicate

Groups of gangsters in the eastern Sarawak state on Borneo island are holding women from the Philippines, Indonesia and China as prostitutes for foreign labourers working at the massive Bakun hydroelectric dam construction site in the state, said the Star paper.

Malaysian police are tracking down the masterminds of a suspected syndicate using foreign women as sex slaves after receiving text messages from the women who are allegedly being held against their will. One of the women, who obtained the mobile number of a reporter from the English daily, began sending cries for help via several short message service (SMS) which were then sent to police. Following surveillance, police launched a raid last week, resulting in the arrest of a local pimp and 10 women from Indonesia, the Philippines and China.

Singapore attracts shipping firms

Singapore became the hottest destination for Indian shipping companies. The tax-friendly regime in Singapore is encouraging domestic shipping companies to acquire vessels through their subsidiaries in that country. Shipping majors are also queuing up to raise finance in Singapore. Mumbai-based Mercator Lines has signed an agreement with an overseas company for acquiring four dry bulk ships through Mercator Lines (Singapore) Pte at an estimated investment of Rs 1,000 crore.

Varun Shipping Company, which specialises in LPG transportation, is also planning vessel acquisition through its Singapore subsidiary.Tolani Shipping has already moved all its ships under the Singapore flag owing to the tax burden faced by shipping companies in India.  Though the country’s largest private shipping company, GE Shipping, has a subsidiary in Singapore, all its vessels are plying under the Indian flag.

However, GE Shipping executives had earlier warned that it will flag out vessels to other countries as multiple taxes in India had made business uncompetitive. “Indian shipping companies are exposed to 12 taxes,” said a senior executive of the shipping company. An industry expert said Singapore levied only nominal tax as tonnage tax and it was also easy to set up a subsidiary there. Mercator’s Singapore subsidiary has also firmed up plans to float an initial public offering in that country. After the public issue, it will be listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange and the IPO proceeds would be used for fleet expansion under the Singapore flag. Sources said the company had finalised the investment bankers for the public issue which would hit the capital market shortly. When contacted, Mercator Lines executives declined to comment.

As a part of the proposed issue, Mercator Lines has raised $51 million through convertible bonds which are listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange. A senior Varun Shipping executive said the company was planning to acquire vessels through its Singapore subsidiary. Varun Shipping had filed a draft prospectus with Monetary Authority of Singapore to issue Singapore Depository Shares. However, considering the volatile stock conditions globally, it has put the issue on the back burner.

Armed Groups Emerging In Southern Nepal

Even after former Maoist rebels gave up their arms and joined the political process, the violence is not likely to stop. Reports suggest that another armed group emerged in Southern Nepal this week.

The newly formed group is calling itself Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha-Second (JTMM-Second). The JTMM-Second is a splinter faction of the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha, which is led by Jaya Krishna Goit. A member of the CPN-Maoist, Goit had formed his group, JTMM-G, following a dispute with the CPN-Maoist leadership in 2004. The newly armed group has been formed under the leadership of Bisfot Singh, a former rebel.

Singh told media persons that he decided to form a new group, as the JTMM-G failed to address the issues of the Madheshee people in Southern Nepal. Eight ‘military’ commanders of the JTMM-Goit announced the formation of the JTMM (Second).

The ‘military’ commanders accused the JTMM-Goit of being unable in bringing independence to Southern Nepal. They also said they would work for the welfare of the Madheshee people.There are many other armed groups operating under various names in Southern Nepal. These include the major groups; JTMM, led by Jwala Singh and National Defense Army (NDA), led by a Hindu priest, among others.

Although there the government does not provide official statistics, unofficial reports say such armed groups have killed about 100 persons in Nepal to date.