Political turmoil in Thailand: What’s next?
Posted by page11 on September 8, 2008
Thailand is facing serious political turbulences for the last few weeks. Anti-government demonstrators, demanding resignation of the Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej, have seized the Government House in Bangkok and battled with the security forces in other parts of the country. Several labor unions and transport workers’ associations also joined the protest. However, resignation of Prime Minister will not put an end to the problem; it will start a new game altogether.
Kingdom of Thailand has a diverse geographic configuration that features flat plains, mountains, tropical rainforests and amazing beaches. The politics and governments of the country too, have shown an assortment of systems blended with interventions of the religion, monarchy and the military. Since Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932, it experienced governments dominated by the elite rich or the military powers.
Despite almost regular military interventions, Thailand saw a steady economic growth and a financial boom in the 1980s that continued in the 1990s in full pace. The country nonetheless was severely struck with what became known as Asian Financial Crisis of 1997. Inflations caused Thai Baht valuation fall from 25 to 56 against the US Dollar. Unlike some other neighboring countries, Thailand gained momentum and came back to path of growth within a short time. Internal disturbance however made it difficult to maintain a steady growth. The saga still continues.
The Kingdom experienced its last military coup on September 19, 2006 following mass anti-government protests against the than Premier Thaksin Shinawatra over several high stake corruption allegations. The capital of the country practically became ‘human sea’ before the Army stepped with the blessings of the Monarchy. Thaksin Shinawatra was away and remained there for sometimes. Army Chief vowed to have a fair election and kept his words. Situation took an interesting turn when Thaksin Shinawatra backed People’s Power Party won the majority of seats in the December 2007 general election. Thaksin soon came back to face corruption cases, but only for few months; he fled to the UK last month and asked for political asylum there.
With a very brief silence, in mid 2008, Bangkok again became loud in the streets from protests demanding the resignation Shamak Sundaravej led government. The protesters say that Shamak led administration is only a puppet government, actually ruled by Thaksin himself.
A rather arrogant stance of Sundaravej to stay in power despite all the protests paved the way for further violence on the streets of Bangkok which later spread across the country. The unrests and disobedience are intensifying, so much so that the country at a time became virtually standstill with three regional airports and 35 train routs closed down. Amidst the crisis, a ray of hope emerged from the Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda who vowed not to seize power and see political problems be solved through political means.
On September 2, state of emergency was declared in Bangkok in response to the growing magnitude of civil unrest. The government vows a return to normalcy as soon as situation becomes stable. On September 4, The special cabinet of the ruling party agreed in principle to hold a referendum to seek public opinion on whether they want the government to continue administering the country or not.
Resignation of Samak Sundaravej led government seems to be the only solution to this problem but the question is, what next? There is strong possibility that People’s Power Party will again form government with its allies if an election takes place. This is because the party has quite a strong support base all over the country; not to mention it is funded by the rich elites including telecommunication Tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra himself. To its support, it has not done anything terrible to be ousted within a year of winning the last election. Another point that puts the ruling party in a safer position is that, the protests on September 2006 brought millions of people in Bangkok but this time around, there are only thousands. Moreover the general public is getting frustrated about the continuous unrest as it hampers their economical wellbeing and social comfort.
On the contrary, if there is an election and People’s Power Party fails to win, it will sure put pressure on the next government to earn its due; meaning unrest will hit the streets again. Worst comes worst, the Army generals might step in anytime with the excuse that political parties failed to solve the problem – politically.
In any case, Thailand is heading towards a bigger turmoil unless the anti-government protesters give the ruling party another chance to prove themselves that they are not puppets by Thaksin and has the ability to pace up the economical paddle.
-Mohammad Yousuf
-Subhan Choudhury
