Weekend protests in Kuala Lumpur will have long-term impact

Kuala Lumpur is back to normal with people back thronging popular shopping spots, especially around Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman. But the police may have crushed a weekend protest, but the crackdown has tainted the country’s democratic credentials and could embolden the opposition ahead of elections.

A massive security lockdown on Saturday in the capital Kuala Lumpur crippled a plan by Bersih, a broad coalition of opposition parties and civil society groups, to muster 100,000 people for a rally demanding electoral reforms. Police used tear gas and water cannon to disperse crowds in the biggest anti-government protests to hit the nation since 2007, when similar demands for reform also ended in chaos on the streets.

More than 1,600 people were arrested, including 16 children as well as prominent lawmakers, and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim was hospitalised after being knocked down in the pandemonium. The stern police action is likely to backfire on the country’s image as one of South-east Asia’s more democratic countries.

Observers said the death of a 59-year-old taxi driver who collapsed while running away from tear gas could further stoke anti-government sentiment. Traders said they suffered losses Saturday, some as much as $1300 as they had to close their business premises earlier than usual.

Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International condemned the crackdown and the arrests and chided Malaysia for flouting international standards. More will follow.

The political fallout from rare scenes of mayhem in Kuala Lumpur is certain to complicate efforts by the Prime Minister Najib Razak’s ruling coalition to bolster its support ahead of general elections that many expect to be held within a year.  Speaking at a government function on Sunday, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak lashed at the opposition-backed protesters saying they were trying to paint a picture of Malaysia as a repressive state. Najib also accused opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim of masterminding the rally and manipulating rally organisers to beef up support for his ambition to become the new prime minister.

Anwar was hospitalised with minor injuries after being knocked down in the chaos on Saturday. The Anwar’s opposition scored major gains in a general election in 2008, denying the ruling Barisan Nasional an outright two-thirds majority for the first time since 1969.

Fresh elections must be held by spring 2013 but Najib is expected to call for a vote in early 2012. There has been increasing demand by the opposition and non-government groups for changes to put a stop to vote buying and prevent irregularities which they say marred previous polls. They want indelible ink to be introduced to prevent multiple voting, equal access to the media for all parties and the cleaning-up of electoral rolls.

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al-Qaeda may blow up airplanes using body bombs

al-Qaida’s main aim between 2012 and 2014 is to bring about the collapse of the hated Arabic governments. The ultimate is that “the creeping loss of the regimes’ power will lead to a steady growth in strength within al-Qaida.” At the same time attacks will be carried out against oil suppliers, airlines and major business centers. The group also plans to target the US economy using cyber terrorism.

Al-Qaeda ideologues envision a complete break from the foreign influences in Muslim countries, and the creation of a new Islamic caliphate. It believes that a Christian-Jewish alliance is conspiring to destroy Islam, which is largely embodied in the U.S.-Israel alliance, and that the killing of bystanders and civilians is religiously justified in jihad.

The US security experts recently asked airlines and airport authorities to be on high alert for possible al-Qaeda attempts to blow up passenger jets using body bombs that are surgically implanted in suicide attackers. They fear fanatics could inject a detonating chemical into themselves to trigger the bombs.

al-Qaeda is currently trying to implant explosives into the abdomens, buttocks and breasts of suicide bombers so they can pass undetected through airport body scanners. Potential bombers would carry a letter from a doctor claiming they have had surgery and need to carry a needle and syringe for medical reasons. It would be sufficient to clear security during check-in for a flight.

Experts say the introduction of more sophisticated screening devices, including body scanners, has led terrorists to seek new ways of smuggling bombs on to planes. Terror experts confirmed that small pouches of high explosives such as Pentaerythritol Tetra Nitrate (PETN) could be implanted into the body. The wounds would be allowed to heal over and the bomb would be detonated in mid air by injecting a chemical into the pouch. Just eight ounces of PETN, the weight of a Rubik’s Cube, could bring down a plane, the experts have warned.

This warning comes after a failed attempt by British- educated Nigerian Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to blow up a plane heading for DetroitfromAmsterdamon Christmas Day in 2009. He tried to detonate the bomb by injecting the pouch with a chemical, but it set his clothes on fire rather than the device, and he was overpowered.

Between 2016 and 2020, al-queda plans to reduce Western influence in the Islamic world, that resistance will not be feared. It hopes that by then the Islamic state will be able to bring about a new world order. The plan however got a huge setback this year with the killing of its leader Osama Bin Laden.

North Korean people need food more than they need slogans

The North’s people are starving. They need to be fed food, not the stable diet of neo-Stalinist slogans. North Korean government rations, believed to be keeping two-thirds of the population alive, have been steadily reducing, down from 400g per person per day in April to 150g in June – the equivalent of a small bowl of rice. The situation has become so dire that an increasing number of North Koreans have resorted to eating grass. The next main cereal harvest is due in October.

The European Union announced earlier this week that it would deliver $14 million in emergency food aid to North Korea to help people at risk of dying amid growing fears of a worsening hunger crisis. The aid will mainly go to the northern and eastern provinces of the country.

On the contrary, North Korea’s leaders have promised their people that the country will have fully achieved its aim of becoming “a great, prosperous and powerful nation” in 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung.

Videos smuggled out by North Korean dissidents show widespread starvation and deprivation, filthy children orphaned by the regime left to subsist as best they can on garbage and handouts. One shows a grimy woman dressed in rags who says she’s 23 but looks 10 years younger. She says she survives by selling grass she cuts along a roadside, whether for human or animal consumption was left unanswered. When asked what she eats, the woman softly replies, “Nothing.”

North ordered its universities to cancel all classes until next April. Some analysts believe it’s to disperse the students lest they start getting ideas from the popular upheavals in North Africa and the Mideast.

Killing of al-Qaeda chief Osama Bin Laden – full coverage

The world’s most-wanted terrorist, who was shot dead by Navy SEAL commandos, lived his last five years imprisoned behind the barbed wire and high walls of his home in Abbottabad, his days consumed by darkness and domesticity.

United States officials believe that Osama bin Laden spent many hours on the computer, relying on couriers to bring him thumb drives packed with information from the outside world. His once-large entourage of Arab bodyguards was down to one trusted Pakistani courier and the courier’s brother, who also had the job of buying goats, sheep and Coca-Cola for the household.

While his world had shrunk, he was still revered at home by his three wives, by his children and by the tight, interconnected circle of loyalists in the compound.

The house in Abbottabad
Abbottabad, a scenic hill cantonment for the British Raj and later home to the elite military academy that is Pakistan’s West Point, became Osama’s family base in late 2005. Three women, 12 children, cows, rabbits and chickens all hid behind the high walls.

The three-storey building that became the fugitive terror chief’s last refuge was built in 2005, a white-walled square-built block without balconies, resembling a small clinic more than a country mansion. Osama never went out. The neighbours knew the family as Arshad Khan and Tariq Khan, the local aliases of the trusted courier he also went by the name Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti and his brother. They never invited anyone in or went to others’ homes, although they did go to prayers in the mosque and funerals in the neighbourhood. The women only left the compound with their husbands in a car, covered from head to toe in black burqas. The children rarely played outside. When neighbourhood boys playing in the fields let a ball fly into the compound by mistake, the Khans gave them Rs. 50 rupees, to buy a new one rather than let them in to retrieve it. To avoid detection, Osama had no Internet, e-mail or phone lines that he could use to send them.

The raid
On April 29, 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama authorized the CIA to conduct a raid, dubbed “Operation Neptune Spear”. Two teams of 12 U.S. Navy SEALs from the Naval Special Warfare Development Group – SEAL Team Six, of the Joint Special Operations Command and working with the CIA paramilitary operatives, stormed bin Laden’s compound in two helicopters.

Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti, bin Laden’s courier, opened fire on the SEALs from the guesthouse with an AK-47 assault rifle where he and his wife were killed in the returned fire. A second group of SEALs entered the main house where they were confronted by al-Kuwaiti’s brother who had his hands behind his back. He was shot and killed by the SEALs, who feared he might have a weapon. Bin Laden’s unarmed 22-year-old son rushed towards the SEALs on the staircase and was also shot and killed. As the raiders traversed the stairs to the 3rd floor of the compound, a man was found standing at the end of the hallway. They immediately recognized him as bin Laden who rather than give-up, retreated into his bedroom. The raiders assumed he was going for a weapon and quickly rushed in to find him behind two women who were yelling and trying to protect him. The women were shoved to the side while another raider fired fatal gunshots into his head and chest. There were two weapons near him, including an AK-47 assault rifle and a 9 millimeter semi-automatic Makarov pistol.

On the night he was killed, Osama was with his Yemeni wife Amal Ahmed Abdulfattah, who was apparently the one shot by commandos in the leg as she rushed them in an effort to protect her husband. U.S. officials say there were also children in the bedroom; Pakistani intelligence officers, in reports that have not been verified by U.S. officials, say a 12-year-old girl told them that she was a daughter of Osama and that she saw the Americans shoot her father. There was one woman killed in the raid, who was caught in cross-fire when the commandos killed the courier. A retired Pakistani intelligence officer, Brig. Asa Munir, said the woman was an Arab doctor.

Osama Bin Laden was not prepared for the kind of attack the commandos carried out. There was no escape route, no tunnels, not even false rooms in the house in which to hide. Bin Laden had cash totaling 500 euro and two telephone numbers sewn into his clothing when he was killed

The entire raid, including intelligence sweeps of the compound, was completed in less than 40 minutes. His body was taken and biometric facial recognition tests were performed. Within 24 hours of his death, bin Laden’s body was transported to the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson for final rites and burial at sea. The burial at sea was believed to have been decided to deny supporters of the al-Qaeda leader a shrine. The two cows ended up at a military-owned factory farm. The fate of the rabbits is unclear.

Photos

Images obtained by Reuters from a Pakistani Army officer show bodies of three dead men in Bin Laden compound with no arms on them suggesting they were unarmed when shot.The photos were taken by the official just an hour after the raid. Observing from behind mirrored glass, CIA officers used cameras with telephoto lenses and infrared imaging equipment to study the compound, and they used sensitive eavesdropping equipment to try to pick up voices from inside the house and to intercept cellphone calls.

Smart CIA watched Bin Laden from nearby safe house
CIA managed to carryout extensive surveillance of Osama Bin Laden’s hideout, watching and photographing residents and visitors from a nearby safe house in Abbottabad for months.

Dumb CIA thought he was in the hills
Since Bin Laden’s escape from Tora Bora in 2001, CIA officials believed he was hiding in the tribal belt along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They have been looking for him in the wrong direction over six years.

A happy U.S. President
“Tonight, I can report to the people of the United States and the world, the United States had carried an operation that has killed Osama bin Laden, a terrorist responsible for killing thousands of innocent people,” President Obama said in a statement. “Today, at my direction, the United States carried out that operation… they killed Osama bin Laden and took custody of his body. The death of bin Laden marks the most significant achievement to date against al-Qaeda.We must also reaffirm that United states is not and will never be at war against Islam. Bin Laden was not a Muslim leader, in fact, he slaughtered many Muslims,” Obama said.

Former US president George Bush called his death a “momentous achievement”. “The fight against terror goes on, but tonight America has sent an unmistakable message: No matter how long it takes, justice will be done,” Bush said in a statement.

Immediate threats
Hours after Obama made the announcement, a top al-Qaeda ideologue promised revenge for bin Laden’s death. The commentator, going by the online name Assad al-Jihad2 posted on websites a long eulogy for the al-Qaeda leader and promised to “avenge the killing of the Sheik of Islam”. The Pakistani Taliban also threatened attacks against government leaders, including President Asif Ali Zardari, the Pakistan army and the United States.

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What happens if Myanmar raises nuclear ambitions?

Concerns over Myanmar relate to a possible similarity with the militaristic undertones of the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes, which threaten Western interests in the region. This article seeks to argue that New Delhi should monitor Myanmar’s nuclear progress because Indian interests would also be affected by its nuclear ambitions.

A rationale for Myanmarese nuclearization lies westwards; with developments in Iraq and Libya indicating that Weapons of Mass Destruction can provide a deterrent capability against Western hegemony. The governing military junta would be concerned about a similar fate, especially owing to continued opposition from Western capitals, and the country’s attractive energy-rich natural resources. Therefore, to establish a military nuclear programme, it would have to emulate other Asian nuclear powers by going for covert militarization vis-à-vis an overt nuclear energy programme.

Alternatively, this may be a grander Chinese proliferation ploy by covertly encouraging a nuclear Myanmar as a proliferation surrogate, other examples of which are North Korea, Pakistan and Iran. Such a tactic would be useful in ensuring survivability of regimes which are deemed favourable to Chinese interests. This would further Asia’s negative role in bucking the trend in global nuclear nonproliferation.

According to Myanmarese defectors speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald, Myanmar is presently developing two nuclear sites, one under international scrutiny, known as the Myaing reactor, located in the Magwe division, and another secret facility inside a mountain at Naung Laing in northern Myanmar. These reports are consistent with other reports revealed in leaked American diplomatic cables dated August 2004, suggesting that nearly 300 North Koreans are facilitating this effort. The latter was established in cooperation with Russia in 2002, while the former, with assistance from North Korea and Iran.

Myanmar, as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, is not allowed to develop nuclear weapons and its nuclear energy ambitions are governed by the ‘Small Quantities Protocol’. Under this treaty, Myanmar is supposed to provide the IAEA with ‘initial reports’ of all relevant nuclear material and to allow the agency to verify those reports via inspections. However, according to the Washington Times, Myanmar has ignored IAEA letters asking for a review of facilities in the country.

Myanmar’s interest in nuclear proliferation reportedly began with a tryst in 2002, with the Sydney Morning Herald reporting that members of the AQ Khan proliferation network visited the country. According to Western diplomats, former deputy foreign minister Kyaw Thu had visited Iran in 2007 to pursue nuclear cooperation in an effort however to bolster Myanmar’s nuclear capability (Asia Times, 24 May 2007). It was in the same year that diplomatic ties with North Korea were restored. This is significant since both Iran and North Korea have advanced their nuclear enrichment programmes and also have the ability to launch nuclear-capable vectors.

What works in Myanmar’s favour is that it may not need to rely on international nuclear fuel supplies, with the country’s Ministry of Energy having identified five areas with confirmed deposits of low-grade uranium. These are at Magway, Taungdwingyi, Kyaukphygon (Mogok), Kyauksin and Paongpyin (Mogok). Additionally, reactor-grade uranium was being mined near Lashio in northern Shan State. It is argued by Desmond Ball, a regional security expert at the Australian National University, and Phil Thornton, a Thailand-based Australian journalist, that cooperation with North Korea and Iran is being pursued under a ‘fuel for technology’ programme.

A common argument given by countries which seek nuclear reactors is that they need to address their domestic energy demands. Myanmar is entitled to civil nuclear cooperation under its international treaties; however, the energy situation in Myanmar does not make for a compelling case. Myanmar is an energy-rich state, which exports natural gas and allied products. According to the US Energy and Information Administration, Myanmar produces about 1.792 million short tones of coal, of which it used 0.322 for domestic use, and its gas production stood at 408 billion cubic ft, while it used only 115 billion cubic ft of gas. Other reports indicate that the percentage loss of electricity in distribution stood at an alarming 30 percent, with almost no use of coal in their energy sector.

These figures suggest that instead of investing in nuclear technology which carries significant capital investment costs and operating charges, the Myanmarese government would be well-advised to improve its distribution network and invest in traditional energy resources, both of which have been largely overlooked. It is for these reasons that Myanmar’s quest for nuclear energy and its evasion of IAEA inspections raise questions about its nuclear intentions.

Neighbouring countries will be concerned about these developments, which would entail complications in trade and bilateral relations arising from resulting international sanctions. This directly concerns India, since its energy interests are in competition with China. A comparable equation is seen in China’s gains as a result of India’s response to Iran’s nuclear programme. Consequently, Chinese opposition to Western interests also impinges on extended Indian interests.

Bin Laden at the sea now

It was the U.S. President Barack Obama who informed the Pakistani President Zardari through telephone about the death of bin Laden after the military operation was conducted by the U.S. forces in a small mountainous town near Islamabad.

A statement by Pakistani foreign office said that the Pakistani armed forced were not involved in the operation that led to the killing of bin Laden, the world’s most-wanted terrorist.

Bin Laden was identified by the assault force that killed him. He resisted and was shot in the head. Bin Laden had been the subject of a search since he eluded US soldiers and Afghan militia forces in a large-scale assault on the Tora Bora mountains of Afghanistan in 2001.

During the two-hour-long operation, the U.S. special forces killed bin Laden together with one of his sons and his three armed followers. Six children of bin Laden, his two wives and four close friends were also reportedly arrested in the operation. One of the four U.S. Cobra helicopters involved in the operation was shot down, killing one pilot whose identity is also not known at this point.

The house in which bin Laden was believed to be killed was a three-story house built nine years ago in a farmland which is far away from other houses. The house is surrounded by wall with barbed wires atop and it has four bodyguard towers at each of the four corners of the wall.

Profile:
Bin Laden was born in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, in 1957. He is the 17th child of a Saudi construction tycoon.

Bin Laden worked for his father’s company before joining the US-backed Jihad, or “Holy War,” against Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979. There he founded the “al-Qaeda” military base camp and training center in 1988.

He moved to Saudi Arabia after Soviet troops pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989 and left in the following year for Yemen in disappointment as Saudi Arabia allowed US troops in to attack Iraq in the Gulf War.

He went to Sudan after the end of the Gulf War. But bin Laden was stripped of Saudi citizenship for allegedly channeling funds for terrorism activities in 1994. Since then, he has been living in Afghanistan. Pulling together several Islamic extremist organizations from different countries and regions, he turned the al-Qaida network into a nucleus in the campaign of driving Americans and Israelis out of Arab territories.

Bin Laden was blamed by the United States for bomb attacks on US barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia in 1996, on American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998 and on a US warship in Yemen in 2000. He is also considered the mastermind behind the September 11th attacks in the US in 2001. He was on the US most wanted list of terrorists in 1999 with a reward of 5-million dollars.

American forces were led to Osama bin Laden by his most trusted courier, a Kuwaiti-born man named Sheikh Abu Ahmed. Ahmed was a shadowy figure for U.S. intelligence, someone it took many years to identify. For a long time, intelligence officials knew him only by his nom de guerre, Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. The first indications about his significance came from CIA detainees shortly after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. Surprisingly, Ahmed and his brother were killed in the same predawn raid Monday that left bin Laden dead.

Why Indonesia is integral to Asia’s economic growth

Since the financial crisis, Asia has benefitted from loose monetary policies, low leverage, unabated investment and consumer spending. This positive backdrop translated into a swift recovery, widening the growth gap between emerging and developed economies.

Growth in Asian economies such as Indonesia has been characterised by favourable demographic and social trends, a sound banking system, a diversified economic base, robust financial health and supportive economic policies.

While China and India are commonly considered the engine of future global growth, Indonesia can claim a similar status based on its own merits. Indonesia’s population, which is spread across 17,000 islands, is greater than Japan, France and the UK combined. Indonesia’s central location creates strong supply lines into China, India and Japan.

As a global competitive supplier of energy and soft commodities, Indonesia can leverage both India’s industrialisation and China’s urbanisation. It also has strong exports and is a leading supplier of palm oil, rubber, cocoa, rice, coffee and tea worldwide. For example, Indonesia is the largest global exporter of palm oil producing over 45% of the world’s global production.

The increase of foreign direct investment into Jakarta’s stock market portrays the improving confidence in the countries prospects. There is also a wide range of undiscovered small and mid caps providing ample opportunities for global investors.
Urbanisation trend

Indonesia’s workforce is growing by two million people per year, and the country exhibits the same urbanisation trend as China and India: by 2020 more than 60% of its 262 million citizens (fourth largest in the world) will be living in cities. The region’s corporates rank third among Asian countries in profit growth since 2002, just behind China and India.

Thanks to a sound banking system and a reduction in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 100% to 26% since the 1997 Asian crisis, Indonesia’s sovereign debt earned a rating by both Standard & Poor’s and Fitch during 2010 and from Moody’s in February 2011.

Indonesia has witnessed promising political developments with President Yudhoyono heading the first elected government free of IMF guardianship. He is expected to further ramp up public spending to address persistent infrastructure bottlenecks.

An emerging young middle class, political stability and strong ties with its mighty neighbours provide a fertile ground for consumption, resource and infrastructure investments in Indonesia.

How the CIA lost in Pakistan

The Non-cooperation of Pakistan in the war in Afghanistan was not only felt in Washington but also in Moscow, Delhi and London. The prominence given to Mr. Saeed on Kashmir liberation day shook the arrogance and hubris of the Superpower that wants to exit Afghanistan. Diplomats in Delhi were in disarray. Those in Europeans capitals wondered where it was headed. All wanted it to end. For about two months the war in Afghanistan was frozen, held hostage to the fate of “Raymond Davis’ and the CIAs efforts to extricate him from the gallows.

Diplomats around the world and and analysts in Langley were concerned that Pakistan’s non-cooperation in the American war in Afghanistan could lead to trouble in the region if CIA haters were given more freedom to move.

America got a bit worried when the smoke signals from Islamabad grew blacker and the skies became more ominous. Concerns grew when ISI chief Pasha sent a message of silence to the CIA. All joint spy operations were suspended. The flow of information from spies to spies was reduced to a trickle. Even the Pakistan Ambassador to Washington (divisively labeled the US Ambassador to Pakistan) Hussain Haqqani was asked to send a message that the era of unstinting and open intelligence sharing with foreign agencies in Pakistan was over. General Kayano also sent the same message that foreign operatives would not longer enjoy unfettered access to the Pakistani countryside.

The Pakistani government has turned a new leaf and had grown a conscience. Either that or it was livid with anger at the indiscretions of the CIA. The Pakistani spy agency had already started a 24/7 “counter-intelligence operation” on all Western diplomats. Mercenaries belonging to outfits like Blackwater/Xe were deeply affected by Pakistani spies who were ordered to follow them around and essentially let them know that they were wanted. Typical anti-spy operations were initiated to harass the CIA operatives who were running amok all over the country. Kids on bikes, and officials on vehicles trailed them on this missions. The round the clock surveillance had been limited to Bharati, Russian and Afghan diplomats. Now it was extended to all European and American diplomats.

In the post 9/11 world the US and Pakistan had agreed to share intelligence. The tree of suspicion grew and grew. The US suspected the Pakistanis of running operations without their knowledge and the Pakistanis knew that the CIA had established its own offices and was not being honest with Islamabad. During the chaos of a new government in Islamabad, right after the fall of Musharraf’s governemnt in 2008, the CIA saw a colossal opportunity and began spreading its tentacles into Pakistan. Xe mercenaries hired local Pakistanis, and began hiding out in safe houses in posh US localities. The boisterous hooliganism of the private contractors led to several scuffles in crowded places in the larger metros of Pakistan. However each time this happened, the contractors were rescued by the the US Embassy. The US operatives were running independent rogue operations which kept on growing. Nothing seemed to be off limits to the contractors.

This modus operandi (MO) was a breach of trust and the Pakistanis were deeply chagrined. First they released the news about ht eoperatives to the newspapers, and the media, then they sent subtle messages to Washington. None of it registered. The US tin ear didn’t quiet get it. They didn’t see it as a direct intervention in Pakistan.

The alarm bells had gone off. The Army had sent the messages to the PPP government. The was sending warnings to the Prime Minister and to the COAS. In 2009, after the PPP government had steadied its legs a bit, Islamabad started to react. It began slowly at first and even then in a very cautious matter. First it held back diplomatic visas to hundreds of Americans who were posing as staff-members of the US Embassy. Then the reaction became more feverish, and a very serous and concerted counter-intelligence operation was started.

Things came to a head when “Raymond Davis” over-reacted to him being followed and murdered his followers in cold blood. The discovery of pictures, the links to the TTP, and the presence of the GPS tracking system opened the eyes of the most skeptical in the Pakistani establishment. The PPP was not unaffected the vents. A groundswell of opposition to the US indiscretions were bubbling up through the rank and file. Once the Davis affair exploded, Islamabad clearly told the Americans that the CIA’s presence in Pakistan would have to be severly curtailed and henceforth it would have to be limited administrative chores only. CIA personnel would have to be restricted to the consulates and embassies. They would be free to write reports on Pakistan. Pakistan informed them that all intelligence operations would be dealt with through the ISI–just like the way it was in the 80s when the ISI was running the Anti-Soviet war in Afghanistan.

The US Administration got scared by Pakistani tactics–especially after it outed the name of the CIA Chief in Pakistan. With the annual Talib Spring beginning in a few weeks, the intense and perhaps decisive battle in Afghanistan is just beginning. America’s huffing and puffing did not quite scare the Pakistanis. The relationship is being redefined. According to the Washington Post “The CIA has launched an internal review of how it trains and deploys security officers overseas after a fatal shooting by one of the agency’s contractors in Pakistan triggered a diplomatic crisis and new recriminations between the two nations’ spy services, U.S. officials said.”

Islamabad was also promised a new deal, a more powerful strategic role in South Asia than Bharat, a diminished role of the CIA and the new lay of the land where the ISI would have full reign of operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Those who think that Pakistan is a winner in this diplomatic wrangle may be wondering about the CIAs next moves in South Asia.

George Will in an fascinating article opposing the war in Libray tells an interesting tale:

“On Dec. 29, 1962, in Miami’s Orange Bowl, President John Kennedy, who ordered the Bay of Pigs invasion, addressed a rally of survivors and supporters of that exercise in regime change. Presented with the invasion brigade’s flag, Kennedy vowed, “I can assure you that this flag will be returned to this brigade in a free Havana.” Eleven months later, on Nov. 2, 1963, his administration was complicit in another attempt at violent regime change — the coup against, and murder of, South Vietnam’s President Ngo Dinh Diem. The Saigon regime was indeed changed, so perhaps this episode counts as a success, even if Saigon is now Ho Chi Minh City.”

Intrusive US interference in Iran led to the Islamic revolution.

Washington plans moves years in advance. While Islamabad seems to have kicked the CIA out–the world awaits the other shoe to fall.

The China factor has been ignored by most analysts. The Chinese Premier arrived in Pakistan and promised to invest $20 billion in Pakistan in the next five years. This colossal spending and will fundamentally transform the Pakistani infrastructure. Islamabad has also discovered hundreds of Billions of Dollars of Gold and Uranium in Balochistan. With the Middle East in turmoil, the Tajiks and the Kygyz and the Turks are swarming to Pakistan for a long term relationship. Pakistan as the fifth largest Nuclear power with intercontinental ballistic missiles cannot be overtly attacked. A few hundred CIA agents have caused damage to the psyche of the people, but the CIA cannot fundamentally undermine the country–in this sense they have failed.

The story of American James bond’s killing of two Pakistani ISI agents….

The shooting of two Pakistani men in Lahore by an undercover CIA agent has taken a new twist after it was claimed the victims worked for Pakistan’s own intelligence agency and had been tailing the American’s car for hours.

Raymond Davis (read James Bond 009),  aged 36, sparked a diplomatic crisis last month when he shot dead two young men in the centre of the Punjabi capital. A third local man was killed by a back-up vehicle rushing to rescue him.

The reason for the shooting at a busy junction in daylight remains a mystery. Although the two men were armed, witness reports do not back the US government’s claim they were common criminals trying to rob Mr Davis.  What is clear is that as they pulled in front of his car, Mr Davis felt threatened enough to pump seven bullets with professional accuracy into the two men. Pakistani officials claim they were shot in the back.

Pakistani political and security sources have claimed the two men were operatives of the country’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency: spies keeping tabs on a spy, killed in a story of brinkmanship gone wrong.

Officially, ISI denies this and suggests the men were Mr Davis’s informants, who turned on him in a dispute over pay, causing him to panic that they would reveal his true identity.  However, at least four Pakistani officials confirmed they were working for ISI.  Both political and Foreign Office sources corroborated the claim that at least one of them was hired by ISI, although not a full agent.

The men had been sent to follow Mr Davis because ISI believed he had crossed a red line. Late last month, Davis was asked to leave an area of Lahore restricted to the military. His mobile phone was tracked and some of his calls were made to Waziristan, where the Pakistani Taliban have a safe haven. It is suspected the calls were made to “ground informants” guiding US drone strikes against Taliban militants. Pakistani intelligence officials allegedly saw Mr Davis as a threat who was “encroaching on their turf”, and, according to one report, the men followed him for two hours, recording his movements on their phone cameras.

Mr Davis tried to escape after the shooting but failed. Items found in his car immediately fanned suspicion – a police report stated he had a Glock pistol, 75 bullets, a “survival kit” and a telescope. Questions were raised about what he was doing in a lower-class district that housed the office of Jamaat-ud-Dawa, an organisation blacklisted by the UN as a terrorist front.

Mr Davis was unmasked as a CIA employee last week, but US papers had previously kept his true identity quiet after being told his life was at risk. The US government claims Mr Davis has diplomatic immunity and is being held illegally. Fearful of looking like a US lackey to an enraged public, the fragile Pakistani government has refused to release him, and the judiciary and political establishment demand he stand trial.

Sources close to the case, however, claim the incident has much wider implications and reveals a covert turf war being waged between ISI and the CIA. According to one senior official, the granting of more than 2000 visas to US officials has riled ISI, which feels threatened by the presence of undeclared CIA operatives on its doorstep.

Mr Davis has become a pawn in a high-stakes tussle between the two agencies. ISI is using the controversy to demand the identities of CIA officers working in Pakistan and access to the drone technology used to target terrorist militants along the border with Afghanistan.

A senior ISI officer told that Pakistani intelligence wanted to “move forward” from the affair if the US was willing to make concessions and treat Pakistan “as allies”. Trust could be regained by identifying agents and entrusting Pakistan with drone technology, he suggested. “Give us the drones and the question of sovereignty doesn’t come in.”

Now Algeria….

The Algerian government deployed around 30,000 riot police to suppress a revolution after more than 2,000 pro-democracy demonstrators gathered in Algiers, demanding the resignation of President Abdelaziz Boutifleka. The demonstrators revolted against the suppressive regime of President Abdelaziz Boutifleka due to huge corruption, massive unemployment, housing problems and poverty. Holding signs that read “Give us back our Algeria,” marchers chanted “No to the police state,”. Protest organizers said an estimated 10,000 people overcame police barricades to gather in the city center before the rally was broken up.

Algeria has officially been in a state of emergency for 19 years, allowing authorities to ban public demonstrations. Protestors ignored the ruling following uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt, forcing Algerian authorities to reconsider the declaration.

On the second move, Algerian government blocked internet to prevent the spread of protest to other parts of the country. They surely realized that during the uprising in Egypt and Tunisia, internet and social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter played a major role in mobilising the protest.

On 4 Feb, Algeria came up with a pre-emptive move to vanquish any possible uprising by promising to end a 19-year old state of emergency and provide more political freedom. The lifting of the state of emergency will happen “in the very near future”, official media quoted President Abdelaziz Bouteflika as telling a meeting of senior ministers.

Islamists virtually grabbed power in the early 1990s against a backdrop of the social, economic and political crises, and only the interference of the military prevented the country from turning into the second Islamic republic. In 1992, authorities in Algeria clamped a state of emergency after declaring invalid a parliamentary election which a radical Islamic party was set to win and what has followed is nearly two decades of armed conflict between Islamic insurgents and security forces.

The economic situation in Algeria is difficult: joblessness, plenty of qualified specialists that have no chance to apply their forces. In contrast to Egypt and Tunisia, which turned to be in the whirlwind of revolutionary events, Algeria is in a more advantageous position, as it is rich in oil and gas.